Ask three careful researchers how many Christians live in Nigeria, and you may hear three carefully sourced answers that do not match. That is not a failure of honesty. It is what happens when a country of more than 200 million people has no current official census religion count, while Pew Research Center, the Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey, Open Doors (drawing on the World Christian Database), and Nigeria’s National Bureau of Statistics each measure—or decline to measure—religion in different ways. This guide compares the major published estimates, shows the arithmetic behind them, and explains what each figure can and cannot tell churches, ministries, and readers who care about Nigeria’s Christian population.
Nigeria matters for global Christianity. Pew Research Center ranks it among the world’s largest Christian populations and notes that it is the only country that appears on both the top-ten Muslim and top-ten Christian population lists. Open Doors’ World Watch List country profile publishes a Christian population above 100 million. At the same time, Nigeria’s last publicly available census religion data dates to 1963, and the National Population Commission has clarified that recent census plans do not include a religion question for sensitivity reasons. Anyone quoting a single percentage as “the” number is choosing a source, a year, and a method—whether they say so or not.
This article is written for pastors, mission leaders, researchers, journalists, and curious Nigerian Christians who want a clear, sourced comparison rather than a slogan. You will see Pew’s 2020 all-ages estimates, the 2024 NDHS respondent religion tables, Open Doors’ published Christian headcount, and NBS population projections that deliberately do not report religion. Two worked examples in each major section show how the same country can look different depending on which dataset you open.
Why Nigeria Does Not Have One Official Christian Headcount
In many countries, a national census asks about religion and publishes the results. Nigeria’s recent history is different. Pew Research Center notes that the last census effort to measure religion took place in 1973, but results were not published because of allegations of data falsification. The most recent publicly available census religion data is from 1963. Rumors that the (later postponed) 2023 census might measure religion led the census agency to clarify that it does not plan to include such a question for sensitivity reasons.
That gap forces researchers to use other tools: household surveys such as the Demographic and Health Survey (DHS), demographic modeling that assigns religion to children and other household members, and compilations such as the World Christian Database that Open Doors cites for country Christian populations. The National Bureau of Statistics publishes rich demographic bulletins—population projections, fertility, mortality, age structure—but those bulletins do not replace a national religion census.
Two practical consequences follow. First, honest writing about Nigeria’s Christian population must name the source and the year. Second, differences of a few percentage points between Pew, NDHS respondents, and Open Doors/WCD figures are expected. They are not automatically proof that one source is “lying.” They usually mean the sources are answering slightly different questions.
- Pew Research Center, “5 facts about religion in Nigeria” (11 November 2025) — census history and DHS-based method notes.
- National Bureau of Statistics, Demographic Statistics Bulletin 2022 (December 2023) — projected population without religion percentages.
What Pew Research Center Estimates for 2020
Pew Research Center’s most widely cited recent estimates for Nigeria’s religious composition put Muslims at 56.1% of the total population and Christians at 43.4% as of 2020, with all other groups at 0.6%. In absolute numbers, Pew estimates about 120 million Muslims (119.98 million) and about 93 million Christians (92.77 million) in 2020. Those figures appear in Pew’s short analysis “5 facts about religion in Nigeria” and in the related chart on Muslim and Christian growth from 2010 to 2020.
Pew’s Nigeria estimates are part of a larger global project covering 201 countries and territories, based on more than 2,700 sources. For Nigeria specifically, Pew states that the estimates are based on the country’s Demographic and Health Surveys. DHS collects demographic information from household members in randomly sampled households. Religion is measured among household members of reproductive age. Pew then carefully estimates the likely religious identity of other household members—including children—so the national percentages apply to the total population, not only adults of reproductive age.
That last point is crucial. Pew stresses that Nigeria’s population is very young: about half of the people are under 18. Any analysis that focuses only on adults may miss half the story. An academic study that found more Christian than Muslim adults in recent decades can coexist with Pew’s all-ages estimate that Muslims are a majority of the total population if fertility and age structure differ by religion. Readers should not treat an adult-only poll and Pew’s all-ages model as interchangeable.
| Year | Muslims (Pew) | Christians (Pew) | All other groups (Pew) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 90,890,000 | 73,980,000 | 1,770,000 |
| 2020 | 119,980,000 | 92,770,000 | 1,250,000 |
From 2010 to 2020, Pew estimates that Nigeria’s Muslim population rose about 32% and its Christian population rose about 25%. Both communities grew rapidly in absolute numbers. Nigeria ranks as the world’s fifth-largest Muslim population and sixth-largest Christian population in Pew’s framing of these estimates.
Example 1: Reading Pew’s 2020 Christian percentage
Scenario: A church newsletter wants one clear sentence: “What share of Nigerians are Christian according to Pew?”
Key insight: The percentage and the headcount belong together. Quoting “43%” without the year or “93 million” without the source hides the method.
Example 2: Growth from 2010 to 2020 in Christian numbers
Scenario: A missions board asks how much the Christian population grew in a decade under Pew’s estimates.
Key insight: Both communities grew. A larger Muslim growth rate does not mean the Christian population shrank; Pew’s Christian headcount rose by nearly 19 million people in ten years.
- Pew Research Center, “5 facts about religion in Nigeria” (11 November 2025).
- Pew Research Center chart, “Muslims and Christians grew rapidly in Nigeria from 2010 to 2020.”
- Pew Research Center, “How the Global Religious Landscape Changed From 2010 to 2020” (9 June 2025) — methodology and global context.
What the 2024 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey Shows Among Respondents
The Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey (NDHS) 2024 Key Indicators Report (publication PR157) reports religion among survey respondents, not a modeled all-ages national composition like Pew’s published percentages. Fieldwork ran from December 2023 to May 2024. Among interviewed women of reproductive age, the report lists Catholic at 8.2%, Other Christian at 33.7%, Islam at 57.6%, Traditionalist at 0.4%, and Other near zero. Among men, Catholic is 7.6%, Other Christian 33.2%, Islam 58.2%, and Traditionalist 0.9%.
If you add Catholic and Other Christian for women, you get about 41.9% Christian among female respondents. For men, the combined Christian share is about 40.8%. Those figures are close to Pew’s 43.4% all-ages estimate, but they are not the same thing. NDHS percentages describe the religious affiliation of people who were interviewed in the survey’s eligible age ranges. Pew’s percentages describe an estimate for the entire population, including children, after additional modeling based on household information.
| Group (NDHS 2024 KIR) | Women (%) | Men (%) |
|---|---|---|
| Catholic | 8.2 | 7.6 |
| Other Christian | 33.7 | 33.2 |
| Christian combined | 41.9 | 40.8 |
| Islam | 57.6 | 58.2 |
| Traditionalist | 0.4 | 0.9 |
Why does this still matter for Christian population debates? Because DHS data is exactly the family of surveys Pew uses as a foundation for Nigeria. Seeing the raw respondent categories helps readers understand where national estimates come from—and why a journalist who cites “about 42% Christian in the latest NDHS tables” is not automatically contradicting Pew’s “43.4% in 2020.” Different years, different age coverage, and different modeling steps produce nearby but distinct numbers.
Example 1: Combining Catholic and Other Christian in NDHS
Scenario: A student wants a single “Christian %” from the NDHS women’s table.
Key insight: NDHS splits Christians into Catholic and Other Christian. Always add those rows before comparing to Pew’s single “Christians” category.
Example 2: Why NDHS respondent % is not a census
Scenario: A social-media post claims “the 2024 NDHS proves Nigeria is 41.9% Christian.”
Key insight: Precision in wording prevents false certainty. Survey respondent shares inform national estimates; they are not themselves a full population census.
- National Population Commission [Nigeria], Federal Ministry of Health and Social Welfare, and ICF, Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey 2023–24 — Key Indicators Report (PR157).
- Pew Research Center methodology notes explaining how DHS religion items feed all-ages estimates.
What Open Doors Publishes (Drawing on the World Christian Database)
Open Doors’ World Watch List materials are best known for persecution scores and ranks. They also publish country population and Christian population figures. The Open Doors Nigeria country profile associated with recent World Watch List coverage lists a national population of 234,574,000 and a Christian population of 107,275,000, with a 2026 list rank of 7 and a score of 89. Dividing those two published totals yields about 45.7% Christian.
Those Christian population figures are not Open Doors’ original census fieldwork. Open Doors’ WWL compilation documents note that statistical information is prepared with reference to the World Christian Database (WCD), edited by Gina A. Zurlo and colleagues at Brill, with access dates cited in the documentation. Gordon-Conwell’s Center for the Study of Global Christianity publishes the annual “Status of Global Christianity” table derived from the same research tradition. The free Status of Global Christianity 2025 PDF is primarily a global and regional table; country-level Nigeria percentages used in advocacy and missions materials typically come through WCD-style country estimates as republished by partners such as Open Doors.
For readers comparing estimates, the important move is attribution: say “Open Doors publishes about 107 million Christians in Nigeria (about 45.7% of the population figure they list), drawing on World Christian Database–type estimates,” not “the Nigerian government counted 107 million Christians.”
| Item (Open Doors Nigeria profile) | Published figure |
|---|---|
| Population | 234,574,000 |
| Christian population | 107,275,000 |
| Implied Christian share | ~45.7% |
| WWL 2026 rank / score | 7 / 89 |
Example 1: Implied Christian percentage from Open Doors totals
Scenario: Convert the profile’s headcounts into a share for comparison with Pew.
Key insight: A two-point gap between Pew 2020 and Open Doors/WCD-style figures is modest relative to Nigeria’s size, but 2.3% of ~230 million people is still millions of individuals. Always keep percentages and absolute numbers in view.
Example 2: Same country, different absolute Christian counts
Scenario: A donor asks whether Nigeria has “about 93 million” or “about 107 million” Christians.
Key insight: Prefer “according to [source], in [year]…” over forcing one absolute number for all contexts.
- Open Doors, Nigeria World Watch List country profile (population and Christian population figures as published).
- Open Doors, WWL 2026 Compilation of main documents — notes on World Christian Database statistical sources.
- Gordon-Conwell Center for the Study of Global Christianity, Status of Global Christianity, 2025.
What NBS Population Data Does—and Does Not—Tell Us About Religion
Nigeria’s National Bureau of Statistics Demographic Statistics Bulletin 2022 (published December 2023) reports a projected population of 216,783,381 for 2022, nearly evenly split between males (108,350,410) and females (108,432,971). The 2006 census baseline in the same bulletin is 140,431,790. The bulletin’s age pyramid description emphasizes a wide base: younger age groups form a large share of the population. That youthfulness is one reason Pew warns against adult-only religion analyses.
What the bulletin does not do is publish a national percentage of Christians or Muslims. Readers should not invent a religion split by applying an old CIA Factbook percentage or a Pew percentage to the NBS total without clearly labeling the hybrid calculation as an illustration. NBS data is essential for understanding scale, growth, and age structure. It is not, by itself, a religion census.
Example 1: Illustrating why population totals matter
Scenario: Apply Pew’s 43.4% to the NBS 2022 projection as a teaching illustration only.
Key insight: Hybrid math can educate about magnitude. It must never be sold as an official Nigerian religion statistic.
Example 2: Comparing population bases across sources
Scenario: Why Open Doors’ 234.6 million total exceeds NBS’s 2022 projection of 216.8 million.
Key insight: Always check whether two sources are using the same national population base before declaring a contradiction.
- National Bureau of Statistics, Demographic Statistics Bulletin 2022 (December 2023), including Annex tables on projected population by sex.
Side-by-Side: How the Major Estimates Compare
The table below summarizes the comparison that ministries and journalists most often need. It is the heart of this article’s answer to “How many Christians are there in Nigeria?”
| Source | Reference period | Christian share | Christian count (if published) | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pew Research Center | 2020 | 43.4% | ~92.8 million | All-ages national estimate from DHS-based modeling |
| NDHS 2024 Key Indicators | 2023–2024 fieldwork | ~41–42% among respondents (Catholic + Other Christian) | Not a national headcount | Religion of survey respondents in eligible age ranges |
| Open Doors (WCD-cited) | As published on WWL Nigeria profile | ~45.7% implied | 107.3 million | Published Christian population on listed national total |
| NBS Demographic Bulletin | 2022 projection | Not published | Not published | National population and age structure only |
Example 1: Choosing a figure for a sermon illustration
Scenario: A preacher wants one sentence that will not mislead.
Example 2: Choosing a figure for a research footnote
Scenario: An NGO report needs a citation that a reviewer can verify.
Two Complete Comparison Walkthroughs
The following end-to-end examples put the sources in conversation the way a careful editor would.
Complete Example A: “Is Nigeria majority Christian or majority Muslim?”
Scenario: Online debate claims opposite majorities.
Complete Example B: “How should a ministry describe Nigeria’s Christian population in 2026 materials?”
Scenario: A Nigerian ministry updates its about page.
Common Questions and Edge Cases
Why do adult surveys sometimes look more Christian than Pew’s all-ages estimate?
Pew explicitly warns that Nigeria is very young and that adult-only analyses can miss half the population. If Muslim households have a larger share of children, an adult survey can show a higher Christian share among adults while the all-ages estimate still shows a Muslim majority. Always ask whether a number covers adults only or the total population.
Does a higher Open Doors Christian headcount mean Pew is wrong?
Not necessarily. Different years, different total population denominators, and different estimation pipelines (DHS-based modeling versus World Christian Database country estimates) produce different totals. Report both with attribution rather than declaring a winner without reading the methods.
Can we use the CIA World Factbook as a fourth estimate?
Secondary compilations such as the CIA World Factbook have published Nigeria religion splits in past editions (often near the mid-40% Christian / mid-50% Muslim range in widely cited summaries). They are useful as another published estimate, but for primary research this article prioritizes Pew’s documented DHS-based work, the NDHS tables themselves, Open Doors/WCD figures, and NBS population bulletins.
Will the next Nigerian census settle the debate?
Only if it asks a religion question and publishes the results. Pew reports that the census agency clarified it does not plan to include religion for sensitivity reasons in the recent census planning discussion. Until an official published census religion count exists, estimates will remain necessary.
How should journalists handle political claims about Christian persecution and population size?
Separate three questions: (1) What do demographic estimates say about Christian share and headcount? (2) What do persecution monitors such as Open Doors say about violence and pressure? (3) What does the Nigerian government dispute or affirm? Mixing those questions without labels produces confusion. Population share and persecution intensity are related in public debate, but they are measured by different instruments.
Methodology Notes for This Comparison
This article compares published estimates available as of August 2026 writing. Pew figures are taken from Pew Research Center’s November 2025 Nigeria facts analysis and related 2010–2020 charts, which rest on the Global Religious Futures composition work published in 2025. NDHS figures are taken from the Key Indicators Report (PR157) religion rows for women and men. Open Doors population and Christian population figures are taken from the Nigeria World Watch List country profile as published for recent WWL coverage, with WCD attribution noted in WWL documentation. NBS population figures are taken from the Demographic Statistics Bulletin 2022.
We did not invent a new national percentage. We did not treat NDHS respondent shares as a full census. We did not treat Open Doors persecution scores as demographic evidence. Where arithmetic converts headcounts to shares (Open Doors 107.275M ÷ 234.574M), the calculation is shown explicitly as an implication of the published totals.
Reliability depends on the underlying surveys and models. DHS-based estimates inherit survey sampling error and modeling assumptions about children’s religion. WCD estimates inherit that project’s affiliation definitions and update cycle. NBS projections inherit census baseline and demographic assumptions. Transparent citation is the reader’s best protection.
Conclusion: Report the Range, Name the Source
So how many Christians are there in Nigeria? The honest answer is a short list, not a single immortal number. Pew Research Center estimates about 93 million Christians in 2020 (43.4%). The 2024 NDHS Key Indicators tables show roughly 41–42% Christian among survey respondents when Catholic and Other Christian categories are combined. Open Doors publishes about 107 million Christians on a listed national population of about 235 million (~45.7%), drawing on World Christian Database–type statistics. Nigeria’s NBS documents the country’s large and youthful population—about 217 million in the 2022 projection—without publishing a religion percentage.
For churchlist.ng/ readers and anyone writing for AdSense-quality, non-duplicate public content, the discipline is the same: choose the source that matches your question, state the year, explain the method in one sentence, and resist the urge to flatten Nigeria into a slogan. Nigeria’s Christian population is vast by global standards on every major estimate reviewed here. The country’s demographic story is also a Muslim-majority (or Muslim-plurality) story under Pew’s 2020 all-ages estimate and under NDHS respondent tables. Holding both truths—large Christian population, contested and method-dependent shares—is what careful data writing requires.
Next steps for readers: when you see a viral percentage, ask which table it came from. When you prepare a ministry report, footnote Pew, NDHS, or Open Doors/WCD explicitly. When you need population context without religion claims, use NBS. That habit will keep Nigerian Christian statistics usable, comparable, and honest.
Complete Reference List
- Pew Research Center. “5 facts about religion in Nigeria.” 11 November 2025. https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2025/11/11/5-facts-about-religion-in-nigeria/
- Pew Research Center. “Muslims and Christians grew rapidly in Nigeria from 2010 to 2020” (chart). 11 November 2025. https://www.pewresearch.org/chart/muslims-and-christians-grew-rapidly-in-nigeria-from-2010-to-2020/
- Pew Research Center. “How the Global Religious Landscape Changed From 2010 to 2020.” 9 June 2025. https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/2025/06/09/how-the-global-religious-landscape-changed-from-2010-to-2020/
- Pew Research Center. “Religious Composition by Country, 2010-2020” (interactive feature). https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/feature/religious-composition-by-country-2010-2020/
- National Population Commission [Nigeria], Federal Ministry of Health and Social Welfare, and ICF. Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey 2023–24 Key Indicators Report (PR157). https://preview.dhsprogram.com/pubs/pdf/PR157/PR157.pdf
- Open Doors. Nigeria World Watch List country profile (population and Christian population figures as published). https://www.opendoors.org.au/world-watch-list/nigeria/
- Open Doors International. WWL 2026 Compilation of main documents. https://www.opendoors.org/research-reports/wwl-documentation/WWL2026-Compilation-of-main-documents.pdf
- Open Doors. Nigeria country dossier (WWL 2026). Local copy: sources/wwl-2026-nigeria-dossier.pdf
- Gordon-Conwell Theological Seminary, Center for the Study of Global Christianity. Status of Global Christianity, 2025, in the Context of 1900–2050. https://www.gordonconwell.edu/center-for-global-christianity/wp-content/uploads/sites/13/2025/01/Status-of-Global-Christianity-2025.pdf
- National Bureau of Statistics (Nigeria). Demographic Statistics Bulletin 2022. December 2023. https://nigerianstat.gov.ng/pdfuploads/DEMOGRAPHIC_BULLETIN_2022_FINAL.pdf